Glossary
Markets & macro

Recession

A meaningful, broad contraction in economic activity.

Loosely defined as two consecutive quarters of falling GDP, though official bodies use a broader judgement including employment and income.

Crucially, the stock market is not the economy. Shares typically fall before a recession is declared and start rising again while the news is still uniformly awful, because prices reflect expectations rather than the present.

Figure

The market moves first, and recovers first

"recession declared"Share pricesThe economy

Shares fall before the data does and start climbing while the news is still uniformly awful. Waiting for the news to improve means buying after the recovery has happened.

Why it matters

Waiting for the economic news to improve before investing means buying after the recovery has happened.

The mistake everyone makes

Selling because a recession has been announced. By then, the market has usually already priced it.

Related terms

See Recession on a real company

SteadyShares pulls this straight from the filings for 1,100+ companies, alongside moat scores, DCF fair value and peer comparison. Free to look around.

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