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Investing in the United States

The one thing to remember

US disclosure is the best in the world, which means any edge you find is unlikely to come from the filings alone.

The question

Understand why the US market is the default, and what that costs you.

Figure

How Investing in the United States works, in one picture

1The disclosure is genuinely exceptional2Which means it is efficiently priced3The index is now a concentration bet4Everything is priced off the Fed

The same argument as the text, as a chain. Each step is what makes the next one possible.

Figure

One number, four consequences

Central bank raises ratesBonds fallOld coupons look poorShares fallFuture cash worth lessBorrowing dearerSpending slowsEarnings slowRoughly a year later

A rate is the price of the future. Move it, and everything whose value sits in the future is repriced, which is why growth companies fall hardest.

  1. 1

    The disclosure is genuinely exceptional

    SEC filings are detailed, timely, standardised and enforced. SteadyShares pulls fundamentals for US companies straight from EDGAR for exactly this reason: it is the one jurisdiction where the primary source is both complete and machine readable.

  2. 2

    Which means it is efficiently priced

    Thousands of analysts read the same excellent filings. Anything a screen can see is already in the price. If you think you have found a mispriced mega-cap, your first question should be why nobody else has.

    Efficiency is not perfection. It is a very high bar, and it is highest exactly where the coverage is deepest.

  3. 3

    The index is now a concentration bet

    A handful of technology companies make up an enormous share of the S&P 500. Buying the index is no longer buying America, it is buying a large position in a few businesses plus a long tail. That may be fine. It should be deliberate.

  4. 4

    Everything is priced off the Fed

    The US risk-free rate is the reference rate for the planet. When it moves, every asset everywhere reprices, which is why a committee in Washington moves the JSE and the Nikkei.

Try it
How many stocks is enough?Interactive
undiversifiable floor
One stock
30%
Your portfolio
24.0%
Floor you cannot cross
23.2%
Drag correlation to zero and risk keeps falling as you add names. Push it to 100 and adding stocks does nothing at all: you own the same bet many times.
You have got it when

You know what share of the index your three largest holdings actually are.

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The bottom line

US disclosure is the best in the world, which means any edge you find is unlikely to come from the filings alone.

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