Dollar Tree (DLTR)
Consumer · NASDAQ · US
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
Dollar Tree trades at $128.45, close to the $141.73 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On this measure the market and the model broadly agree, so the interesting question is which of them is wrong.
Our moat model scores it 54 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 20.0 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
About Dollar Tree
Dollar Tree, Inc. operates retail discount stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands in the United States and Canada. The company offers consumable merchandise comprising everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, food, candy, health, personal care products, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise consisting of toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods, including Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.
Smart money ownership
13 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Arrowstreet Capital, ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$163.76M · 0.1% of book
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$148.23M · 0.1% of book
- Ken Griffin, CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$79.57M · 0.0% of book
- Christopher Bloomstran, SEMPER AUGUSTUS INVESTMENTS GROUP LLC$56.23M · 6.7% of book
- Burgundy Asset Management, Burgundy Asset Management Ltd.$49.43M · 0.5% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is Dollar Tree (DLTR) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of $141.73, DLTR at $128.45 is 10% below fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own DLTR?
13 of the institutions we track reported a position in DLTR in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is DLTR's P/E ratio?
DLTR trades at 20.0 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
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Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.