Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYC.AX)

Basic Materials · ASX · Australia

AUD14.87+0.54% today

Fundamentals

Market capAUD10.99B
P/E ratio195.3
Revenue growth (YoY)+62.7%
Profit margin11.5%
Return on equity2.9%
52-week rangeAUD10.37 to AUD22.37

Valuation and ratings

DCF fair valueAUD6.25
Upside to fair value-58.0%
Analyst target (mean)AUD19.60
Analyst rangeAUD9.50 to AUD25.50
Analysts covering14
Consensus viewbuy
Moat score45/100
Overall rating30/100, Reduce

Fair value: AUD6.25 (-58.0%), see how we got there

Lynas Rare Earths Limited trades at AUD14.87, which is 58% above the AUD6.25 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.

Our moat model scores it 45 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.

It changes hands at 195.3 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.

LYC.AX earnings and analyst estimates

EPS estimate, next yearAUD0.68
Expected EPS growth+130.1%
Expected revenue growth+67.9%

Recommendation mix, 15 analyst ratings

9 buy3 hold3 sell

Estimates are the published analyst consensus and move often. An earnings date is scheduled, not certain, and a share tends to reprice most violently on the day itself.

About Lynas Rare Earths Limited

Lynas Rare Earths Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the exploration, development, mining, extraction, and processing of rare earth minerals in Australia and Malaysia. The company holds interests in the Mt Weld rare earths mine and concentration plant near Laverton in Western Australia; a rare earths processing facility in Kalgoorlie, Western Australia; and an advanced materials plant in Gebeng, Malaysia. It also offers light rare earths, including lanthanum, cerium, praseodymium, and neodymium; and heavy rare earth, comprising of samarium, europium, gadolinium, terbium, and dysprosium. In addition, the company develops and operates advanced material processing and concentration plants, as well as offers corporate services. The company was formerly known as Lynas Corporation Limited and changed its name to Lynas Corporation Limited in November 2020. Lynas Rare Earths Limited was incorporated in 1983 and is headquartered in Perth, Australia.

Industry: Other Industrial Metals & MiningHQ: Australia

LYC.AX passes 1 of our 30 screens today

Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.

Common questions

Is Lynas Rare Earths Limited (LYC.AX) undervalued?

Against our discounted cash flow estimate of AUD6.25, LYC.AX at AUD14.87 is 58% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.

What is LYC.AX's P/E ratio?

LYC.AX trades at 195.3 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.

The full research page for LYC.AX, with financial statements, ownership detail, peer comparison and alerts, is free inside the app.

Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.