Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL)
Consumer Cyclical · NYQ · US
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
Toll Brothers, Inc. trades at USD155.81, which is 29% above the USD110.84 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.
Our moat model scores it 44 out of 100, which is little in the way of a moat. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 11.4 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
About Toll Brothers, Inc.
Toll Brothers, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, builds, markets, sells, and arranges finance for a range of detached and attached homes in luxury residential communities in the United States. It designs, builds, markets, and sells condominiums through Toll Brothers City Living. The company also develops a range of single-story living and first-floor primary bedroom suite home designs, as well as communities with recreational amenities, such as golf courses, marinas, pool complexes, country clubs, and fitness and recreation centers; and develops, operates, rents apartments and student housing communities. In addition, it provides various interior fit-out options, such as flooring, wall tile, plumbing, cabinets, fixtures, appliances, lighting, and home-automation and security technologies. Further, the company owns and operates architectural, engineering, mortgage, title, land development, insurance, smart home technology, landscaping, lumber distribution, house component assembly, and component manufacturing operations. It serves luxury first-time, move-up, empty-nester, active-adult, and second-home buyers. The company was founded in 1967 and is headquartered in Fort Washington, Pennsylvania.
TOL passes 1 of our 30 screens today
Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.
Smart money ownership
15 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Greenhaven Associates, GREENHAVEN ASSOCIATES INC$770.42M · 12.7% of book
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$238.02M · 0.1% of book
- Ken Griffin, CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$154.57M · 0.0% of book
- Israel Englander, MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$111.13M · 0.1% of book
- Two Sigma, TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$61.44M · 0.1% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of USD110.84, TOL at USD155.81 is 29% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own TOL?
15 of the institutions we track reported a position in TOL in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is TOL's P/E ratio?
TOL trades at 11.4 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
The full research page for TOL, with financial statements, ownership detail, peer comparison and alerts, is free inside the app.
Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.