How to survive a correction
The market does not take your money in a correction. You give it away, by selling at the bottom to someone who waited.
Have a plan written before you need one, because you will not write a good one during.
How to survive a correction works, in one picture
The same argument as the text, as a chain. Each step is what makes the next one possible.
The market moves first, and recovers first
Shares fall before the data does and start climbing while the news is still uniformly awful. Waiting for the news to improve means buying after the recovery has happened.
- 1
Know the base rates, because they are reassuring
A 10% fall is a correction and happens roughly once a year. A 20% fall is a bear market and happens every few years. Bull markets last longer and rise by more than bears fall. None of this is unusual, and all of it feels unprecedented while it is happening.
- 2
Missing the best days is the actual risk
The best days cluster inside the worst periods, often within days of the bottom. An investor who sells to avoid the fall reliably misses the rebound, because the rebound arrives while the news is still terrible. Missing a handful of the strongest days over a decade devastates long-run returns.
This is why 'get out and get back in when it is safe' fails. It never feels safe at the bottom. That is what a bottom is.
Selling to 'wait for clarity' means buying back higher. The clarity arrives with a price tag attached.
- 3
Reread your thesis, not the price
For each holding, ask whether the thing you wrote down when you bought it has actually broken. A falling price is not evidence. It is a fact about other people's mood. If the thesis is intact, a lower price makes it a better investment, not a worse one.
- 4
Then do the boring thing
Rebalance back to your target allocation, which mechanically forces you to buy what has fallen. Keep contributing. Do not look at it daily. The most valuable investing skill is the ability to do nothing on purpose.
You have written down, today, what you will do if your portfolio falls 30%.
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The market does not take your money in a correction. You give it away, by selling at the bottom to someone who waited.
Every one shows its exact method, and the circumstances in which it is wrong. Free, and no account to look.
