Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK)
Consumer Cyclical · NYQ · US
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
Graphic Packaging Holding Company trades at USD11.13, close to the USD10.97 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On this measure the market and the model broadly agree, so the interesting question is which of them is wrong.
Our moat model scores it 21 out of 100, which is little in the way of a moat. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 11.2 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
About Graphic Packaging Holding Company
Graphic Packaging Holding Company, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the design, production, and sale of consumer packaging products to brands in food, beverage, foodservice, household, and other consumer products in the Americas, Europe, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Americas Paperboard Packaging and International Paperboard Packaging. The Americas Paperboard Packaging segment includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies serving the food, beverage and consumer product markets and cups, lids and food containers sold primarily to foodservice companies and quick-service restaurants in the Americas. The International Paperboard Packaging includes paperboard packaging sold primarily to CPG companies serving the food, foodservice, beverage and consumer product markets, including healthcare and beauty, outside of the Americas. It also designs, manufactures, and installs specialized packaging machines. The company sells its products through sales offices, as well as through broker arrangements with third parties. Graphic Packaging Holding Company was incorporated in 2007 and is headquartered in Atlanta, Georgia.
GPK passes 1 of our 30 screens today
Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.
Smart money ownership
13 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$78.26M · 0.0% of book
- David Einhorn, GREENLIGHT CAPITAL INC$62.51M · 3.0% of book
- Ken Griffin, CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$54.38M · 0.0% of book
- Israel Englander, MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$52.60M · 0.0% of book
- D. E. Shaw, D. E. Shaw & Co., Inc.$31.16M · 0.0% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is Graphic Packaging Holding Company (GPK) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of USD10.97, GPK at USD11.13 is 1% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own GPK?
13 of the institutions we track reported a position in GPK in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is GPK's P/E ratio?
GPK trades at 11.2 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
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Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.