Heineken NV (HEIA.AS)

Consumer · Euronext · Europe

€76.64+8.77% today

Fundamentals

Market cap€42.12B
P/E ratio22.4
Dividend yield2.51%
Revenue growth (YoY)-2.8%
Profit margin6.6%
Return on equity9.9%
52-week range€63.90 to €80.24

Valuation and ratings

DCF fair value€66.75
Upside to fair value-12.9%
Analyst target (mean)€86.24
Analyst range€70.00 to €126.00
Analysts covering23
Consensus viewbuy
Moat score43/100
Overall rating46/100, Hold

Heineken NV trades at €76.64, close to the €66.75 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On this measure the market and the model broadly agree, so the interesting question is which of them is wrong.

Our moat model scores it 43 out of 100, which is little in the way of a moat. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.

It changes hands at 22.4 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.

About Heineken NV

Heineken N.V. brews and sells beer and cider in Europe, the Americas, Africa, the Middle East, and the Asia Pacific. The company also provides soft drinks. It sells its products under the Heineken, Heineken 0.0, Heineken Silver, Amstel, Moretti, Tiger, Desperados, Edelweiss, Lagunitas, Orchard Thieves, Windhoek, Dos Equis, Red Stripe, Kingfisher, Bintang, Gosser, Affligem, Mort Subite, Strongbow, Stassen, Bulmers, Old Mout, Savanna, Turbo King, Tecate, Lagunitas Hoppy Refresher, Bia Viet, Tiger Crystal, Birra Moretti, Harar, Cruzcampo, Bernini, Legend Stout, Beavertown, Stëlz, Texels, Ladrón, Bandida, Stibitzer, El Aguila, and Murphy's brands. In addition, the company engages in rental of pubs and bars; wholesale activities; and pub management and technical services. The company offers its products to retailers, wholesalers and distributors, bars, restaurants, clubs, cafes, and hotels. Heineken N.V. was incorporated in 1864 and is headquartered in Amsterdam, the Netherlands. Heineken N.V. is a subsidiary of Heineken Holding N.V.

Industry: Beverages - BrewersEmployees: 81,028HQ: Netherlands

HEIA.AS passes 3 of our 30 screens today

Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.

Common questions

Is Heineken NV (HEIA.AS) undervalued?

Against our discounted cash flow estimate of €66.75, HEIA.AS at €76.64 is 13% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.

What is HEIA.AS's P/E ratio?

HEIA.AS trades at 22.4 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.

The full research page for HEIA.AS, with financial statements, ownership detail, peer comparison and alerts, is free inside the app.

Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.