Medibank Private (MPL.AX)

Financials · ASX · Australia

A$5.11+5.26% today

Fundamentals

Market capA$13.88B
P/E ratio29.6
Dividend yield3.29%
Revenue growth (YoY)+4.9%
Profit margin5.3%
Return on equity20.0%
52-week rangeA$4.06 to A$5.28

Valuation and ratings

DCF fair valueA$2.02
Upside to fair value-60.4%
Analyst target (mean)A$5.06
Analyst rangeA$4.60 to A$6.05
Analysts covering10
Consensus viewhold
Moat score45/100
Overall rating25/100, Sell

Medibank Private trades at A$5.11, which is 60% above the A$2.02 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.

Our moat model scores it 45 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.

It changes hands at 29.6 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.

About Medibank Private

Medibank Private Limited provides private health insurance in Australia. The company operates in two segments, Health Insurance and Medibank Health. The Health Insurance segment provides private health insurance products, including hospital cover that offers members with health cover for hospital treatments; and ancillary cover, which provides members with health cover for healthcare services comprising dental, optical, and physiotherapy, as well as offers health insurance products to overseas visitors and students. The Medibank Health segment provides health management and in-home care services, as well as a range of telehealth and primary care services to government and corporate customers; and distributes travel, life, and pet insurance products. It underwrites and distributes private health insurance policies under the Medibank and ahm brands for resident and nonresident customers. The company was founded in 1976 and is based in Docklands, Australia.

Industry: Insurance - SpecialtyEmployees: 3,604HQ: Australia

MPL.AX passes 5 of our 30 screens today

Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.

Common questions

Is Medibank Private (MPL.AX) undervalued?

Against our discounted cash flow estimate of A$2.02, MPL.AX at A$5.11 is 60% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.

What is MPL.AX's P/E ratio?

MPL.AX trades at 29.6 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.

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Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.