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ZTO Express (ADR) (ZTO)

Industrials · NYSE · China

$24.59+8.85% today

Fundamentals

Market cap$18.12B
P/E ratio14.2
Dividend yield2.90%
Revenue growth (YoY)+22.0%
Profit margin17.9%
Return on equity14.9%
52-week range$17.74 to $26.20
Next earnings2026-08-18

Valuation and ratings

DCF fair value$9.53
Upside to fair value-61.2%
Analyst target (mean)$29.09
Analyst range$23.15 to $32.59
Analysts covering18
Consensus viewstrong buy
Moat score59/100
Overall rating36/100, Reduce

ZTO Express (ADR) trades at $24.59, which is 61% above the $9.53 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.

Our moat model scores it 59 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.

It changes hands at 14.2 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.

About ZTO Express (ADR)

ZTO Express (Cayman) Inc. provides express delivery and other value-added logistics services in the People's Republic of China. It also offers less-than-truckload (LTL) logistics services; integrated logistics solutions for warehousing, distribution, and transportation; and freight forwarding services. The company was founded in 2002 and is headquartered in Shanghai, the People's Republic of China.

Industry: Integrated Freight & LogisticsEmployees: 23,399HQ: China

ZTO passes 6 of our 30 screens today

Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.

Growing dividend payers
A modest yield attached to a growing business beats a large yield attached to a shrinking one, every time, over any horizon that matters.
Growth at a reasonable price
Real growth, without the multiple that usually comes attached to it. The middle ground between value and growth, and the hardest place to find anything.
Data centres and power
AI's binding constraint turned out not to be chips. It is electricity, and the grid was not built for this.
Aerospace and defence
Governments are rearming and the order books run for a decade. The customer cannot stop buying, and it also sets your margin.
China and Hong Kong
Enormous growth, and a structure in which you may not legally own the company you think you bought. Both are true at once.
Dividend aristocrats
Companies with long, unbroken records of raising their dividend. The record is the point: it is evidence, not a promise.

Smart money ownership

9 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:

A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.

Common questions

Is ZTO Express (ADR) (ZTO) undervalued?

Against our discounted cash flow estimate of $9.53, ZTO at $24.59 is 61% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.

Which funds own ZTO?

9 of the institutions we track reported a position in ZTO in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.

What is ZTO's P/E ratio?

ZTO trades at 14.2 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.

The full research page for ZTO, with financial statements, ownership detail, peer comparison and alerts, is free inside the app.

Open ZTO in the appFree guides and screens

Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.