Progressive Corp. (PGR)
Financials · NYSE · US
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
Progressive Corp. trades at $205.80, which is 122% below the $456.11 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure alone it screens as undervalued, though a DCF is an argument rather than a measurement, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
Our moat model scores it 63 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 11.7 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
About Progressive Corp.
The Progressive Corporation operates as an insurance company in the United States. It writes insurance for personal autos and special lines products, including motorcycles, RVs, and watercraft; and personal residential property insurance for homeowners and renters. The company also writes auto-related liability and physical damage insurance for comprising dump trucks, log trucks, garbage trucks, tractors, trailers, straight trucks, tow trucks and wreckers, vans, pick-up trucks, and autos; business-related general liability and commercial property insurance for small businesses; and workers' compensation insurance for the transportation industry. In addition, it offers other specialty property-casualty insurance and provides related services; personal property reinsurance products; and involved in investment activities. It sells its products through independent insurance agencies, as well as online and over the phone. The Progressive Corporation was founded in 1937 and is headquartered in Mayfield, Ohio.
PGR passes 6 of our 30 screens today
Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.
Smart money ownership
26 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Capital Research Global, Capital Research Global Investors$4.48B · 0.7% of book
- Two Sigma, TWO SIGMA INVESTMENTS, LP$699.35M · 0.6% of book
- Arrowstreet Capital, ARROWSTREET CAPITAL, LIMITED PARTNERSHIP$528.08M · 0.3% of book
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$476.81M · 0.2% of book
- Andreas Halvorsen, VIKING GLOBAL INVESTORS LP$320.47M · 0.9% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is Progressive Corp. (PGR) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of $456.11, PGR at $205.80 is 122% below fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own PGR?
26 of the institutions we track reported a position in PGR in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is PGR's P/E ratio?
PGR trades at 11.7 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
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Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.