Is BRR undervalued? Our fair value estimate
ProCap Financial, Inc. · Financial Services · NGM
How we got here
The estimate is computed from BRR's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for BRR today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Leverage haircuts the estimate: debt claims cash before shareholders do, and it turns bad years into dangerous ones.
The belief gap: what growth this price asks you to believe
Run our DCF backwards and every price becomes a growth assumption. One axis compares them: today's market price, the entry prices implied by super investors' 13F filings, the mean analyst target, and the growth our own model funds. The gap between the market's marker and the cohort's markers is the growth you are being asked to believe that informed buyers did not need.
No growth rate between 0% and 30% makes our model's fair value equal today's price, so the market is pricing something our DCF cannot express. Steadfast Capital Management's Q4 2025 entry underwrote about 3.7%. Our model funds 5.0%.
Steadfast Capital Management's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $3.53, which implied about 3.7% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Citadel Advisors's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $3.53, which implied about 3.7% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Marshall Wace's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $3.53, which implied about 3.7% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Tudor Investment Corp ET AL's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $3.53, which implied about 3.7% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Entry prices are filing-implied averages (reported position value divided by reported shares for the quarter a position was opened or materially increased), not actual cost bases; 13Fs lag by up to 45 days. How the Belief Gap is computed.
Common questions
Is ProCap Financial, Inc. (BRR) undervalued?
On our model, BRR at USD1.78 trades 110% below our fair value estimate of USD3.74, so it screens as undervalued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of BRR?
Our current fair value estimate for ProCap Financial, Inc. is USD3.74 per share. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is BRR's fair value calculated?
From ProCap Financial, Inc.'s reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the BRR app page puts every input of this model on a slider, including a reverse DCF that shows the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.