Is GEG undervalued? Our fair value estimate
Great Elm Group, Inc. · Financial Services · NMS
How we got here
The estimate is computed from GEG's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for GEG today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
The trailing growth rate informs the growth assumption, which the model caps deliberately: uncapped growth assumptions can justify any price.
Margins tell the model how much of each unit of revenue survives as profit, and how much room there is for that to erode.
Persistent high returns on capital are what a moat looks like in the accounts, and they feed the moat score alongside the valuation.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Leverage haircuts the estimate: debt claims cash before shareholders do, and it turns bad years into dangerous ones.
The belief gap: what growth this price asks you to believe
Run our DCF backwards and every price becomes a growth assumption. One axis compares them: today's market price, the entry prices implied by super investors' 13F filings, the mean analyst target, and the growth our own model funds. The gap between the market's marker and the cohort's markers is the growth you are being asked to believe that informed buyers did not need.
Today's price asks you to believe about 17.0% annual cash-flow growth. Renaissance Technologies's Q4 2025 entry underwrote a higher 21.0%. Our model funds 5.0%.
Renaissance Technologies's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $2.55, which implied about 21.0% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Millennium Management's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $2.55, which implied about 21.0% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Citadel Advisors's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $2.55, which implied about 21.0% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Entry prices are filing-implied averages (reported position value divided by reported shares for the quarter a position was opened or materially increased), not actual cost bases; 13Fs lag by up to 45 days. How the Belief Gap is computed.
Common questions
Is Great Elm Group, Inc. (GEG) undervalued?
On our model, GEG at USD2.18 trades 39% above our fair value estimate of USD1.33, so it screens as overvalued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of GEG?
Our current fair value estimate for Great Elm Group, Inc. is USD1.33 per share. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is GEG's fair value calculated?
From Great Elm Group, Inc.'s reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the GEG app page puts every input of this model on a slider, including a reverse DCF that shows the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.