Is HQ undervalued? Our fair value estimate
Horizon Quantum Holdings Ltd. · Technology · NCM
Price as at 1 Oct 2026, 16:37 UTC. Quotes are delayed.
How we got here
The estimate is computed from HQ's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for HQ today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
Wall Street's published earnings growth forecast, used as context for the capped growth assumption, never swallowed whole.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Wall Street's number, next to ours
The mean analyst price target for HQ is $20.00 across 1 analysts, which implies +35.6% from the current price. Our estimate is $8.92. They answer different questions: an analyst target is a 12-month price prediction averaged across banks; ours is a model's view of what the business is worth, with every assumption published. When they disagree, at least one of us is wrong.
The belief gap: what growth this price asks you to believe
Run a discounted cash flow backwards and every price becomes a growth assumption. One axis compares them: today's market price, the entry prices implied by super investors' 13F filings, the mean analyst target, and the growth our own model funds. The gap between the market's marker and the cohort's markers is the growth you are being asked to believe that informed buyers did not need.
Today's price asks you to believe about 17.2% annual cash-flow growth. Our model funds 5.0%. The mean analyst target implies 25.1%.
Entry prices are filing-implied averages (reported position value divided by reported shares for the quarter a position was opened or materially increased), not actual cost bases; 13Fs lag by up to 45 days. How the Belief Gap is computed.
Technology peers, by our rating
The same model, run on the highest-rated names in the same sector. A gap to fair value is only comparable when the method behind it is identical, which here it is.
Common questions
Is Horizon Quantum Holdings Ltd. (HQ) undervalued?
On our model, HQ at $14.75 trades 40% above our fair value estimate of $8.92, so it screens as overvalued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of HQ?
Our current fair value estimate for Horizon Quantum Holdings Ltd. is $8.92 per share. For comparison, the mean Wall Street analyst price target is $20.00 across 1 analysts; that is their number, computed differently from ours. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is HQ's fair value calculated?
From Horizon Quantum Holdings Ltd.'s reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the HQ app page restates this estimate as a separate five-year discounted cash flow, puts its growth and discount rates on sliders, and runs it backwards to show the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.