Is NGVC undervalued? Our fair value estimate
Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. · Consumer Defensive · NYQ
How we got here
The estimate is computed from NGVC's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for NGVC today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
The starting point is earnings power: what the business earns per share, and what the market currently pays for each unit of it.
The trailing growth rate informs the growth assumption, which the model caps deliberately: uncapped growth assumptions can justify any price.
Wall Street's published earnings growth forecast, used as context for the capped growth assumption, never swallowed whole.
Margins tell the model how much of each unit of revenue survives as profit, and how much room there is for that to erode.
Persistent high returns on capital are what a moat looks like in the accounts, and they feed the moat score alongside the valuation.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Leverage haircuts the estimate: debt claims cash before shareholders do, and it turns bad years into dangerous ones.
Wall Street's number, next to ours
The mean analyst price target for NGVC is USD46.33 across 3 analysts, which implies +47.7% from the current price. Our estimate is USD28.77. They answer different questions: an analyst target is a 12-month price prediction averaged across banks; ours is a model's view of what the business is worth, with every assumption published. When they disagree, at least one of us is wrong.
The belief gap: what growth this price asks you to believe
Run our DCF backwards and every price becomes a growth assumption. One axis compares them: today's market price, the entry prices implied by super investors' 13F filings, the mean analyst target, and the growth our own model funds. The gap between the market's marker and the cohort's markers is the growth you are being asked to believe that informed buyers did not need.
Today's price asks you to believe about 7.0% annual cash-flow growth. Two Sigma Investments's Q1 2026 entry only needed about 2.5%. Our model funds 5.0%. The mean analyst target implies 16.5%.
Two Sigma Investments's Q1 2026 filing implies an average entry near $25.85, which implied about 2.5% annual growth under our model.
Millennium Management's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $25.05, which implied about 1.8% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Renaissance Technologies's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $25.05, which implied about 1.8% annual growth under our model (low confidence).
Aqr Capital Management's Q1 2026 filing implies an average entry near $25.85, which implied about 2.5% annual growth under our model.
Entry prices are filing-implied averages (reported position value divided by reported shares for the quarter a position was opened or materially increased), not actual cost bases; 13Fs lag by up to 45 days. How the Belief Gap is computed.
Common questions
Is Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NGVC) undervalued?
On our model, NGVC at USD31.36 trades 8% above our fair value estimate of USD28.77, so it looks roughly fairly valued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of NGVC?
Our current fair value estimate for Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. is USD28.77 per share. For comparison, the mean Wall Street analyst price target is USD46.33 across 3 analysts; that is their number, computed differently from ours. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is NGVC's fair value calculated?
From Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc.'s reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the NGVC app page puts every input of this model on a slider, including a reverse DCF that shows the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.