Is UCAR undervalued? Our fair value estimate
U Power Limited · Consumer Cyclical · NCM
How we got here
The estimate is computed from UCAR's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for UCAR today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
The trailing growth rate informs the growth assumption, which the model caps deliberately: uncapped growth assumptions can justify any price.
Margins tell the model how much of each unit of revenue survives as profit, and how much room there is for that to erode.
Persistent high returns on capital are what a moat looks like in the accounts, and they feed the moat score alongside the valuation.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Leverage haircuts the estimate: debt claims cash before shareholders do, and it turns bad years into dangerous ones.
Wall Street's number, next to ours
The mean analyst price target for UCAR is USD2.00 across 1 analysts, which implies +110.0% from the current price. Our estimate is USD2.08. They answer different questions: an analyst target is a 12-month price prediction averaged across banks; ours is a model's view of what the business is worth, with every assumption published. When they disagree, at least one of us is wrong.
Common questions
Is U Power Limited (UCAR) undervalued?
On our model, UCAR at USD0.95 trades 118% below our fair value estimate of USD2.08, so it screens as undervalued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of UCAR?
Our current fair value estimate for U Power Limited is USD2.08 per share. For comparison, the mean Wall Street analyst price target is USD2.00 across 1 analysts; that is their number, computed differently from ours. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is UCAR's fair value calculated?
From U Power Limited's reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the UCAR app page puts every input of this model on a slider, including a reverse DCF that shows the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.