Is VWAV undervalued? Our fair value estimate
VisionWave Holdings, Inc. · Industrials · NGM
Price as at 2 Oct 2026, 03:54 UTC. Quotes are delayed.
How we got here
The estimate is computed from VWAV's reported fundamentals, with a growth assumption that is deliberately capped: small changes to an uncapped growth or terminal assumption can justify any price, and a number that can justify anything means nothing. These are the inputs the model holds for VWAV today; the exact method, and where it goes wrong, is on the methodology page.
A volatility measure against the wider market. A jumpier share earns a larger discount for risk, which lowers the estimate.
Leverage haircuts the estimate: debt claims cash before shareholders do, and it turns bad years into dangerous ones.
The belief gap: what growth this price asks you to believe
Run a discounted cash flow backwards and every price becomes a growth assumption. One axis compares them: today's market price, the entry prices implied by super investors' 13F filings, the mean analyst target, and the growth our own model funds. The gap between the market's marker and the cohort's markers is the growth you are being asked to believe that informed buyers did not need.
Today's price asks you to believe about 6.2% annual cash-flow growth. Citadel Advisors's Q2 2026 entry only needed about 5.2%. Our model funds 5.0%.
Citadel Advisors's Q2 2026 filing implies an average entry near $4.30, which implied about 5.2% annual growth under our model.
Marshall Wace's Q4 2025 filing implies an average entry near $9.26, which implied about 24.2% annual growth under our model.
Entry prices are filing-implied averages (reported position value divided by reported shares for the quarter a position was opened or materially increased), not actual cost bases; 13Fs lag by up to 45 days. How the Belief Gap is computed.
Industrials peers, by our rating
The same model, run on the highest-rated names in the same sector. A gap to fair value is only comparable when the method behind it is identical, which here it is.
Common questions
Is VisionWave Holdings, Inc. (VWAV) undervalued?
On our model, VWAV at $4.49 trades 5% above our fair value estimate of $4.27, so it looks roughly fairly valued today. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation: a fair value estimate is an argument about the future, and the market is frequently right about why something is cheap.
What is the fair value of VWAV?
Our current fair value estimate for VisionWave Holdings, Inc. is $4.27 per share. The estimate moves as prices and fundamentals move.
How is VWAV's fair value calculated?
From VisionWave Holdings, Inc.'s reported fundamentals: earnings power, a deliberately capped growth assumption, and a discount for balance sheet and volatility risk. The full method, including its known weaknesses, is published on our methodology page, and the interactive Valuation Lab lets you change every assumption and watch the value move.
Disagree with an assumption? Good. The Valuation Lab on the VWAV app page restates this estimate as a separate five-year discounted cash flow, puts its growth and discount rates on sliders, and runs it backwards to show the growth the market is currently pricing in.
A fair value estimate is a model output computed from company filings and market data, refreshed daily; quotes are delayed. It is educational information, not financial advice and not a recommendation to buy or sell anything. Read the full disclaimer.