The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG)
Financial Services · NMS · US
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
The Carlyle Group Inc. trades at USD46.63, which is 60% above the USD18.44 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.
Our moat model scores it 54 out of 100, which is a moat, but not a deep one. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 31.2 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
About The Carlyle Group Inc.
The Carlyle Group Inc. is an investment firm specializing in direct and fund of fund investments. Within direct investments, it specializes in management-led/ Leveraged buyouts, privatizations, divestitures, strategic minority equity investments, structured credit, global distressed and corporate opportunities, small and middle market, equity private placements, consolidations and buildups, senior debt, mezzanine and leveraged finance, and venture and growth capital financings, seed/startup, early venture, emerging growth, turnaround, mid venture, late venture, PIPES, recapitalization. The firm invests across four segments which include Corporate Private Equity, Real Assets, Global Market Strategies, and Solutions. The firm typically invests in industrial, agribusiness, ecological sector, fintech, airports, parking, Plastics, Rubber, diversified natural resources, minerals, farming, aerospace, defense, automotive, consumer, retail, industrial, infrastructure, energy, power, healthcare, software, software enabled services, semiconductors, communications infrastructure, financial technology, utilities, gaming, systems and related supply chain, electronic systems, systems, oil and gas, processing facilities, power generation assets, technology, systems, real estate, financial services, transportation, business services, telecommunications, media, and logistics sectors. Within the industrial sector, the firm invests in manufacturing, building products, packaging, chemicals, metals and mining, forestry and paper products, and industrial consumables and services. In consumer and retail sectors, it invests in food and beverage, retail, restaurants, consumer products, domestic consumption, consumer services, personal care products, direct marketing, and education. Within aerospace, defense, business services, and government services sectors, it seeks to invest in defense electronics, manufacturing and services, government contracting and services, information technology, distribution companies, supply chains, aftermarket services, cybersecurity and digital resilience, digital transformation. Within healthcare, biotech and medtech innovation, life sciences, healthcare IT, pharmacy, pharma commercialization. In telecommunication and media sectors, it invests in cable TV, directories, publishing, entertainment and content delivery services, wireless infrastructure/services, fixed line networks, satellite services, broadband and Internet, and infrastructure. Within real estate, the firm invests in office, hotel, industrial, retail, for sale residential, student housing, hospitality, multifamily residential, homebuilding and building products, and senior living sectors. The firm seeks to make investments in growing business including those with overleveraged balance sheets. The firm seeks to hold its investments for four to six years. In the healthcare sector, it invests in healthcare services, outsourcing services, companies running clinical trials for pharmaceutical companies, managed care, pharmaceuticals, pharmaceutical related services, healthcare IT, medical, products, and devices. It seeks to invest in companies based in Sub-Saharan focusing on Ghana, Kenya, Mozambique, Botswana, Nigeria, Uganda, West Africa, North Africa and South Africa focusing on Tanzania and Zambia; Asia focusing on Pakistan, India, Hong Kong, South East Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, Malaysia, Singapore, Vietnam, Taiwan, Korea, and Japan; Australia; New Zealand; Europe focusing on France, Italy, Denmark, United Kingdom, Germany, Austria, Belgium, Finland, Iceland, Ireland, Netherlands, Norway, Portugal, Spain, Benelux , Sweden, Switzerland, Hungary, Poland, and Russia; Middle East focusing on Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and UAE; North America focusing on United States which further invest in Southeastern United States, Texas, Boston, San Francisco Bay Area and Pacific Northwest; Asia Pacific; Soviet Union, Central-Eastern Europe, and Israel; Nordic region; and South America focusing on Mexico, Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru. The firm seeks to invest in food, financial, and healthcare industries in Western China. In the real estate sector, the firm seeks to invest in various locations across Europe focusing on France and Central Europe, United States, Asia focusing on China, and Latin America. It typically invests between $2.24 million and $50 million for venture investments and between $50 million and $2 billion for buyouts in companies with enterprise value of between $31.57 million and $1000 million and sales value of $50 million and $300 million. It seeks to invest in companies with market capitalization greater than $50 million and EBITDA between $5 million to $25 million. It prefers to take a majority or a minority stake. While investing in Japan, it does not invest in companies with more than 1,000 employees and prefers companies' worth between $100 million and $150 million. The firm originates, structures, and acts as lead equity investor in the transactions. The Carlyle Group Inc. was founded in 1987 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia with additional offices across North America, South America, Asia, Australia and Europe.
CG passes 1 of our 30 screens today
Each screen prints the exact criteria it used, and the circumstances in which it is wrong.
Smart money ownership
11 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Bill Nygren, HARRIS ASSOCIATES L P$1.60B · 1.1% of book
- John Rogers, ARIEL INVESTMENTS, LLC$385.35M · 2.3% of book
- Israel Englander, MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$329.20M · 0.1% of book
- Thomas Gayner, MARKEL GROUP INC.$128.43M · 0.6% of book
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$13.61M · 0.0% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is The Carlyle Group Inc. (CG) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of USD18.44, CG at USD46.63 is 60% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own CG?
11 of the institutions we track reported a position in CG in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is CG's P/E ratio?
CG trades at 31.2 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
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Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.