First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG)
Consumer Cyclical · NMS
Fundamentals
Valuation and ratings
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. trades at USD12.23, which is 17% above the USD10.19 our discounted cash flow model puts on the business. On that measure it screens as expensive, which is not the same as saying it will fall.
Our moat model scores it 24 out of 100, which is little in the way of a moat. A moat is a structural reason competitors cannot take the profits away, and it matters more to a long holding period than any single quarter's numbers do.
It changes hands at 42.9 times earnings. Be careful reading that in isolation: for a cyclical business a low P/E arrives at the top of the cycle, when profits are peaking and about to fall, which is exactly when the shares look cheapest and are not.
FWRG earnings and analyst estimates
Recommendation mix, 10 analyst ratings
Estimates are the published analyst consensus and move often. An earnings date is scheduled, not certain, and a share tends to reprice most violently on the day itself.
About First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc.
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates and franchises restaurants under the First Watch trade name in the United States. The company was formerly known as AI Fresh Super Holdco, Inc. and changed its name to First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. in December 2019. First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. was founded in 1983 and is based in Bradenton, Florida.
Super investor ownership
6 of the funds we track reported a position in their latest SEC 13F filing. Largest first:
- Israel Englander, MILLENNIUM MANAGEMENT LLC$33.87M · 0.0% of book
- Ken Griffin, CITADEL ADVISORS LLC$5.12M · 0.0% of book
- Cliff Asness, AQR CAPITAL MANAGEMENT LLC$1.03M · 0.0% of book
- Paul Tudor Jones, TUDOR INVESTMENT CORP ET AL$806.2K · 0.0% of book
- Marshall Wace, MARSHALL WACE, LLP$161.4K · 0.0% of book
A word of warning on reading these figures: a 13F reports the market value of a holding, so a fund that traded nothing at all still appears to have sold when the price fell. We found 102 companies where the standard reading gives the opposite answer. Only the share count is honest.
Common questions
Is First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. (FWRG) undervalued?
Against our discounted cash flow estimate of USD10.19, FWRG at USD12.23 is 17% above fair value. That is one model's answer, not a recommendation, and most of a DCF's output sits in a terminal value nobody can forecast.
Which funds own FWRG?
6 of the institutions we track reported a position in FWRG in their most recent SEC 13F filing. A 13F is filed up to 45 days after quarter end, so it tells you what a fund held then, not what it holds now.
What is FWRG's P/E ratio?
FWRG trades at 42.9 times earnings. A low P/E is not automatically cheap: on a cyclical company it is usually a warning that earnings are at a peak.
When does FWRG report earnings next?
First Watch Restaurant Group, Inc. is scheduled to report on 4 Aug 2026. Companies move earnings dates, so read it as scheduled rather than certain.
The full research page for FWRG, with financial statements, ownership detail, peer comparison and alerts, is free inside the app.
Data from company filings, exchange quotes and SEC EDGAR 13F disclosures. Quotes are delayed. Metrics we do not have are left out rather than estimated. Educational information, not financial advice.